Hjælp! hvordan skal jeg investere?

[renecohrt]

Emne: 7 grunde til at investere i guld.

Seven reasons to invest in gold
Investec outline seven reasons why it believes that the price of gold will continue to rise.

By Bradley George and Daniel Sacks
Published: 10:18PM GMT 07 Mar 2010


World's largest solid gold brick weighing 220kg (485lb) Photo: AFP/Getty There are both headwinds and tailwinds influencing the gold price, but the positives combined with the degree of investment demand from wealthier investors ' should outweigh the negatives.

We believe this is likely to force a peak that is nearer $1,300 per ounce over the next six months, with $1,000 per ounce becoming the new long-term floor. In our view, the following factors are currently influencing the gold price in the medium to long-ter

This negative price response seems to be due to the perceived lack of demand from official sectors to purchase the IMF balance ' last year only 150 tonnes of a planned sale of 400 tonnes was sold.

Given the publicity that surrounded the Indian central bank's purchase of gold, reluctance from other large central banks to take the IMF balance may be as a result of an unwillingness to disclose their views and subsequent moves relating to the dollar or gold. Instead they may be pursuing a strategy of steady accumulation over time in the secondary market.

2. In our view, recent euro weakness is the result of fiscal issues in Greece and other peripherals rather than a longer-term fundamental bearish issue. We therefore do not believe this is likely to be negative for gold in the longer-term.

3. Gold's physical market ? jewellery fabrication ? appears to have been stronger in the early part of this year, suggesting acceptance of higher prices.

According to the World Gold Council's latest update, global demand for jewellery dropped by 20pc in 2009, the biggest annual decline on record, while survey data was the weakest in over 20 years at less than 1,700 tonnes ? nearly 50pc lower than 2005 ? but it appears that this may now be reversing.

4. In theory, the longer-term impact of President Obama's bank proposals on gold may be negative. Passage of his proposed legislation could curtail the volume of commodity trading, which on balance is likely to be negative for gold.

5. Actual and anticipated monetary tightening in China has also coincided with gold price declines this year. For example, on 12 January 2010 and 12 February 2010, the Chinese central bank announced an increase in bank reserve requirements in response to the rapid increase in bank lending.

The People's Bank of China said it will raise the reserve-requirement ratio for banks by half a percentage point from Feb. 25, the second increase this year. This will make it standard for major banks to keep 16.5pc of their deposits on reserve, though rates can vary by bank. Further tightening may trigger similar declines.

6. Currently, there is the possibility that the Australian government may scrap the state-based royalty taxes that apply to mining projects and replace them with a uniform national resource rent tax in order to raise more revenue.

Should adoption of this tax discourage marginal gold production in the world's third largest gold producer, the longer-term impact of the tax may be positive for gold prices.

7. We believe the result of January's US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting is more bullish than bearish for bullion going forward.

Although the outlook for inflation is stable according to the Federal Reserve?s statement, we believe the reaffirmation by the Federal Reserve that rates are likely to remain low for an extended period should be supportive of gold prices in the long term.

[renecohrt]

Forventninger til euroen?
af renecohrt skrevet Lør 07. Mar, 2009 15:47

Euroen er en valuta, der kollapser før US-dollaren. Den vil fremtidig være en afgørende hindring for europæisk politisk enhed.

Ved euroens skabelse manglede den europæiske enhed også, så de passende reguleringsmekanismer kom aldrig på plads.

Europa må ligesom USA anses for en kollaberet enhed uden fremtid, hvis situationen skal betragtes realistisk, her er ikke mere at hente.

René Cohrt

PS: Nøgternt vurderet ligger fremtiden i Asien. Indien, Kina først og fremmest, men også mindre asiatiske lande.

[renecohrt]

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Svar med citatRedigér indlægSlet indlægRapportér dette indlægRe: Gode råd til prospektive guldinvestorer.
af renecohrt skrevet Man 30. Nov, 2009 16:28

Den personlige økonomiske udryddelse behøver ikke skyldes egne dispositioner, men hyppigst betinget af andres.

Begrebet "det økonomiske fællesskab" skal tages med et stort gran af forsigtighed og betyder hyppigst ens økonomiske udryddelse.

Tænk blot på hvor mange der lever på dette fællesskab ( skønsmæssigt 1 million).

Holdningen til at leve på fællesskabet's bekostning synes generationsinflueret om end ikke afgørende forskellig, men den følte naturlighed af holdningen hverken moden eller troværdig i sine konsekvenser.

Besiddelse af guld er en økonomisk livsforsikring.

René Cohrt

[renecohrt]

De økonomiske muligheder indsnævres?


Den jævne, usofistikerede opsparer er i dag uden nogen form for selvbeskyttelse (økonomisk) og bliver det for meget, er der selvmordet tilbage.

Demokratiet er de kriminelles instrument.

Vil man befris for sine usurpatorer, så må man tage livet af dem.

For den jævne mand er enhver form for frihed frataget.

[Value]

@ renecohrt: Emnet på indlægget i denne tråd omhandlede hvordan en investeringspulje på 20.000 kr. kunne fordeles - og ikke omkring en udredning af det nuværende nyhedsbillede som den østriske skole og Hayek ville foretrække det. Spar os for det pladder politik og kom med nogle konkrete saglige indlæg. Som Henrik selv nævner det, mangler der nyttige informationer til den nye investorer omkring valg af investeringsstrategi og klar fastlægning af risikoprofil. At placere sin formue hele sin formue i guld og sølv er en sikker vej til tab. Guld og sølv er råvarer, som ikke forrentes ligesom eksempelvis et firmas egenkapital eller renten på en statsobligation. Man skaber ikke værdi i et samfund ved at investere penge i at grave guld op af jorden ét sted i verden, for dernæst at begrave det et andet sted og vente.

Mit råd til Henrik: Hvis du vil lære fundamentalerne bag investering i aktier skal du læse disse bøger: Bejamin Graham - The Intelligent Investor og Security Analysis. Som aktiescreeningsværktøj vil jeg anbefale dig at bruge http://www.upsido.com - her kan du screen alle nordiske aktier ud fra en masse centrale nøgletal. En defensiv approach ville være:

1. Firma størrelse > 1 mia. kr.
2. Current ratio > 2
3. Stabil udbytte historik
4. Stigende indtjening
5. Stigende væks i EPS
6. P/E < 15.
7. P/B < 2.

Af fornuftige danske selskaber på lang sigt ser jer: FLS, NKT, Norden og Carsberg.

Håber dette er en hjælp!

[renecohrt]

Value's mening er legitim og viser at investorer ikke er enige om hvad der har betydning.

Tidens udvikling vil vise, hvad der sker.

Rigtigt at jeg tilhører den østrigske skole.


Hvad mener value om manglen på orden i penge og gældssystemet. Er de sædvanlige regler ikke sat ud af spillet.

USA og EU færdige som financielle markeder.

[renecohrt]

L: Financial self-defense 101 – that's what we teach Casey Research subscribers. But let's walk through some of the generalities here. Reasonable actions to take would include: buying gold, diversifying assets offshore, and… would you still recommend going to cash with inflation on the way?



Doug: Here's an easy way to remember it: I would liquidate, consolidate, speculate, and create.



Liquidate: Get rid of any assets you have that might have been favored by the old economy but are likely to be blown away by the new one. That would include speculative real estate holdings in formerly hot markets. Maybe even sell your house, if you can, and rent instead. Or, for sure if you keep your house, get a big mortgage at a fixed low rate that will probably be inflated out of existence. And get rid of your houseful of stuff – the junk filling your basement, your attic, that storage unit you're renting – anything you don't really need. Turn it into cash.



Consolidate: Cut your expenses to the bone and consolidate your assets. The best way to do that is to buy gold and silver in cash form (coins) and put them away as savings. The other critical element is getting a major portion of your assets offshore.



Speculate: With the government creating bubbles through its mammoth spending programs, and other bubbles popping, like the collapse of more major corporations, take chances on winning big on bets placed on these trends. It's possible in such volatile times to make a lot of money, just as you do for subscribers to the International Speculator, and Marin does for the Energy Report.



Create: In the coming years, the world is likely to change as radically as it did entering the industrial revolution. This is going to be a really major change, economically, politically, technologically, demographically, socially, militarily – the whole ball of wax. This is a good time to look around and ask yourself, not, "Who will give me a job?" but, "What goods and services can I provide that people will need in the future and pay me for?" What worked during the late Long Boom won't work – in order to create, you're going to have to think creatively.

[renecohrt]

Direkte spørgsmål til Value.

ER ikke enhver opsparing indenfor det konventionelle system (bankers merdvirken) spildt ulejlighed med alt forgæves tabt?

[Value]

@ renecort: Jeg mener bestemt ikke at guld er nogle dårlig investering i turbulente tider. Har selv ligget med 8 % af min portefølje i guld de seneste to år. Men at sætte hele formuen i guld er i mine øjne yderst risikabelt.
Den nuværende gældssituation er i mine øjne opstået på grund at for lave renter og mangel på oprydning efter IT-boblen i 2001. De billige penge har stimuleret kreative banker og bankfolk til at opfinde komplekse produkter samt foretage udlån til kunder som ikke var kreditværdige. Bankerne har derved taget en masse dårlige lån på deres aktivside og burde som et resultat af dette også går konkurs! Mht. opsparing er min filosofi: Sæt dig grundigt ind i tingene og forvalt dine egne penge. Dette kan dog sjældent gøres uden en bank/børsmægler som mellemand. Jeg benytter mig selv af E*TRADE, som jeg er meget tilfredse med. De eneste som koster penge er kurtagen ved mine handler - ingen depotgebyrer eller åndsvage bankrådgivere!

[renecohrt]

Kære Value


Tak for et meget sobert svar, hvad jeg ikke er vant til.

Er situationen ikke meget extrem og berettiger det ikke til at 80 % af ens lividitet ligger i guld?